reality bites

Matt Yglesias sez:

“The genius of the real private economy is that firms that are really poorly run go out of business. It’s not that some magic private sector fairy dust makes the firms all be runs soundly. Lots of bad businesses are out there. But they tend to lose money and close. Meanwhile, well-run firms tend to earn profits and expand. The public sector doesn’t have this feature. Just because a public agency is inept is no guarantee that it will go out of business. Resources are allocating according to political clout rather than any criteria of merit. It’s a problem. But it’s not a problem that “privatizing” public services actually solves. There’s no magic private sector fairy dust.”

You’d think this would be obvious, but to a lot of people, it’s not. I don’t know whether this is because people think especially little of the government, or simply don’t have enough private business experience to realize how badly a lot of them are actually run (and how many of them fail).

(via Andrew Sullivan.)

1%

Vanity Fair on the oft-discussed, rarely addressed issue of radical income inequality in the U.S. :

“The upper 1 percent of Americans are now taking in nearly a quarter of the nation’s income every year. In terms of wealth rather than income, the top 1 percent control 40 percent. Their lot in life has improved considerably. Twenty-five years ago, the corresponding figures were 12 percent and 33 percent.”

There’s two reasons I tend to instinctively brush off this topic, but neither of them are particularly good. One, I feel very fortunate — and I am — which I think gives me a misguided sense of association with the wealthiest 1%, who are of course in exponentially better financial shape than I’ll ever be.

The other reason is that these comparisons always seem like a study of different ages, and of time periods so far-gone that they might as well be different worlds, like when people reference the World War II-era 90% marginal tax rate and people grew Victory Gardens. But read that quote again — they’re talking about how radically different things were just twenty five years ago, when I was talking and walking around, and Reagan was president, and there were personal computers with mice. We’re not talking about black and white clips of Levittown from 1950; culturally, things weren’t even all that different, but it makes you realize that economically, they really, really were.

I am not much of a populist. I think people are often stupid and short-sighted, especially in large groups. But I do try to figure out how populists think, and I’m having a lot of trouble understanding why cultural populism (which is often based on the desire to protect traditional values and lifestyles) isn’t more firmly attached to economic populism, given the community-upheaval that this kind of inequality causes and how obvious its effects are these days. In other words, it’s a lot more likely that small town America is being torn asunder by the decline of, say, labor (and thus, a steady supply of good-paying, reasonably low-skill or at least low-education-requiring jobs) than by eastern religions and gay people. So if the defense of small town culture is what you’re after, why the lack of political support for small town economics, other than maybe farm subsidies? Heck, even those are just regional handouts that are often checks to big companies, as opposed to tax policies or infrastructure investments that actually benefit people in the middle of the income curve.

Not that I would necessarily vote for him (I almost certainly wouldn’t), but where’s the evangelical Christian, re-distributive socialist out there, and if he’s inherently unable to exist, why the hell is that? Why — and how, logically, for that matter — does the body politic support social and fiscal policy built simultaneously around a Christian God, and improving the already opulent lives of the small number of people who have more money than him? And if this support has been getting stronger since as recently as the mid 1980′s, why is that? Why are our torch-and-pitchfork wielding mobs, from the anti-tax day groups to the Wisconsin union people, so narrowly focused on things as dumb and far removed from actual, everyday economics as electoral politics?

I am legitimately stumped by this.

privacy, defined by GI Joe’s “Duke”

Well, I have to fly home soon. So what should I go for, an unnecessary blast of radiation that broadcasts me in all my natural glory, or possibly (though inadvertently) causing a scene by opting out and getting felt up by a TSA employee?

Pundits? Any thoughts?

“I don’t consider the full-body scanners an invasion of privacy,” Adler said. “I think a bomb detonating on a plane is the biggest invasion of privacy a person can experience.”

This has to be some extension of Godwin’s Law or something, but I’m really getting sick of people taking any negative thing that exists in the world, and immediately comparing it with fiery, violent, highly improbable death.

Person A : This bicycle helmet looks stupid.

Person B : No it doesn’t. I think getting your head smashed open on pavement is what REALLY looks stupid.

It’s not a perfect analogy (after all, it probably does look stupid to die in a bike accident, but I’m not so sure “stupid” is really the operative word), but just like my desire to not die in a bike accident has very little to do with looking stupid, my desire to not get blown up on an airplane has very little to do with “privacy”. Trust me, if I ever die on a plane, I’m not going to be yelling “THIS IS SO EMBARRASSING!” as I plummet to my doom.

And, of course, the elephant in the room here is the almost comically obvious false choice — i.e., you either beam naked pictures of yourself to some lightly educated desk jockey in a control room, or YOUR PLANE EXPLODES AND YOU DIE. If that choice were accurate, it would make sense to point out that posing for digital images of your reproductive organs is, in fact, probably not worth certain incineration. But it’s not accurate, so that argument is at best misleading, and at worst, completely irrelevant. The fact is, I’ve flown on many planes in my short life so far without ever posing for naked pictures for anyone, at any time, and none of my planes have ever been blown up — something that’s true for 99.999% (probably more, but I figured 5 significant digits was enough to make my point) of airline travelers.

The refrain from some of the TSA employees who have complained on the various Facebook protest pages I read (they’re complaining about the protest, that is) has been that it’s their job to do whatever they can to protect people, and if this helps a tiny bit, then so be it, and you should all shut up and do as you’re told and stop implying that you find this whole routine so very, very wrong. But of course, these people are government workers, so their job is to enact policy, not define it. If the TSA’s priorities (safety and security) were, by definition, the priorities of the country as a whole, we’d just let TSA pass laws and run our lives. Obviously we’re looking for some kind of balance, and TSA people getting mad because people won’t “just get in the damn machine for two seconds” (when presented with a legal, operationally inconvenient alternative) is like me getting mad because my company’s customers prefer incredibly bland marketing emails with stock pictures of old white people sitting around conference tables instead of the cool, badly drawn Adobe Illustrator art I come up with. I can tell them they are all idiots, but in the end, I work for them, even if I am totally right and they all have terrible taste and should make less money than me. (ed. OK, that’s about enough of that.)

And in the end, all government workers — local, state, federal, security, whatever — ultimately work for the people, albeit often very indirectly. If people as a whole weren’t okay with traffic tickets, we’d elect people to get rid of the speed limit. If we think food or drugs are over-regulated, we’ll elect people to loosen the rules. Many times, we do exactly that.

In the case of the TSA, if we think these dudes are weirdo perverts just looking for chances to see full frontal nudity of yours truly, or to grope my wife in front of large swaths of holiday travelers, or that they’re simply throwing 25 units of privacy (PUs, if you will) away in exchange for 1 unit of safety, eventually all this pushback will turn into a political issue for the White House and Congress. At that point, between the two of them, either the policy will be changed voluntarily, or eventually, a law will be passed the undercuts the TSA’s authority to make these calls.

Of course, that doesn’t help me in two weeks. Maybe I should write something funny on my chest — any suggestions?

compromise

The Washington Post on the White House’s reaction to the election :

“With unemployment at 9.6 percent, both the president and the Republicans will be under pressure to compromise.”

Um, no they won’t. They’ll be under pressure to get the unemployment rate down, or to successfully imply that the other guy is responsible for it not going down. And since the former is a lot harder (and maybe impossible), prepare for another two years of political “success” being defined by accomplishing the latter. Compromise has nothing to do with anything in this situation.

Here’s what Joe Blow Voter cares about, in order, taking into account that realistically, he probably doesn’t think long-term enough to be worried about terrorism or the environment unless he is currently being blown up or the river is flooding his yard :

1. getting money (preferably {see #3} via a simple, easy job, or government subsidies disguised as genuine earnings)

2. having as little of that money taken away as possible by anyone else (taxes, prices of goods and services)

3. feeling smart and/or awesome (not putting in more money into the system than they get, not giving money to people who didn’t “earn” it, not being in debt, having the most badass military, etc.)

That’s it. If you accomplish #1, people will probably start caring about #2, but only if it doesn’t hurt #1, and of course, unless they are both working, no one gives a rat’s ass about #3 (unless you convince them it’s causing #2, or even better, #1). And note that you can accomplish these goals from whatever direction you want, politically, and no one will care — if you could tax the crap out of everyone and somehow make us all rich, we wouldn’t care about taxes, unless we started thinking we could be rich and have low taxes. See how this works? Political science, baby.

This is why the debt is politically irrelevant. It’s definitely relevant in other ways, but it’s got nothing to do with why people don’t have jobs right now — we’ve had enormous deficits in the past, and no one even remotely cared, except Ross Perot, and we only cared about him because the job market was weak (in fact, we progressively cared less and less about him as the job market improved). There is no way people will accept increased taxes OR a reduction in government benefits in the name of debt reduction unless either (A) you convince them that said policies will create jobs and get them money, or (B) they think these taxes/reductions will only affect other people.

Generally, I would think both A & B are pretty difficult, but really, only A is. It’s hard to convince someone they don’t have a job, or money, when they obviously don’t, although weirdly enough it actually was possible until the whole consumer debt/house-ATM thing collapsed. It’s pretty much a dead end if the banks won’t play along, though, and these days, they either can’t, or won’t. Probably can’t.

On the other hand, you could definitely pull off B if you were a really good politician. But again, all of this, electorally, is irrelevant unless you get people money — which is actually easier if we don’t address the debt, and continue to operate with low taxes and high entitlement expenditures. And of course, that’s exactly what we’re going to do, because if we don’t get voters more money, they will vote the new guys out in just two short years, along with El Presidente, and then the whole cycle will repeat until some unrelated series of events addresses job growth, or the debt actually does eat the country (I said it was politically irrelevant, not operationally irrelevant), whichever comes first, unless they both happen at the same time.

Basically, it’s very hard to effectively protest vote every two years in a two party system without accidentally approving of some things you don’t particularly care for. At least John Boehner seems to get this — his whole approach this morning is all about how Democratic losses are a repudiation of Democratic policies. And while that may be true, I actually doubt it; I don’t think most Americans really understand, or care about, Republican or Democratic policies — they just understand that everything is expensive and they have no job, or a terrible one.

All the stuff we dissect as causation for these effects; unpopular wars, government interference, social issues, ethics, even criminal activity, is all secondary to whether the economy is improving to the average person in a noticeable way. Lots of and lots of people who were literally disgusted with Bill Clinton as a human being, leader, whatever, pulled the lever for him in 1996 and absolutely would have again in 2000 given the opportunity, because the economy appeared to be strong and quality of life was generally improving from day to day (despite the pretty obvious bubble nature of that era’s growth). And in 2004, lots of people thought President Bush was either (A) stupid, (B) kind of lazy, or (C) just not really paying a lot of attention and totally voted for him again anyways, because on his watch, their house had genuinely appeared to triple in value and they could buy a Blu-Ray player for no money down even if they worked at Burger King part time.

If anyone running for office knew a fool-proof way to get the economy juiced, and all they cared about was getting re-elected, they would totally do whatever it took to enact, unless they didn’t think they’d get credit for it. Which means either no one knows what to do, or we have some idea what to do, but we’re obsessed with who will get credit for it and are thereby paralyzed.

The truth is probably a little bit of both, and I don’t have a solution.

the daily rally

Speaking of this weekend, I also went into the city to check out Comedy Central’s wacky rally on the Washington Mall. I have no idea how to guesstimate crowds — I will just say that there were a lot of freaking people there, and I couldn’t really hear or see anything going on up on stage.

But I did see lots of signs (not my picture) :

We hung out for a while, but left pretty quickly simply because we were too far away to see or hear anything, other than a massive roar of approval when this one kid finally managed to successfully scale a tree.

surprisingly thorough

I’m sure there are some simplifications in here (projections tend to do that), but this is a remarkably thorough attempt to balance the federal budget by Esquire magazine, of all places.

great taste, less filling

Hooray, it’s debate time! And look — they’re entering my wheelhouse! The establishment clause of the 1st amendment!!! DOES ANYONE WANT TO READ MY FORTY PAGE SENIOR THESIS ON EXACTLY THIS SUBJECT?????

Coons said private and parochial schools are free to teach creationism but that “religious doctrine doesn’t belong in our public schools.”

“Where in the Constitution is the separation of church and state?” O’Donnell asked him.

When Coons responded that the First Amendment bars Congress from making laws respecting the establishment of religion, O’Donnell asked: “You’re telling me that’s in the First Amendment?”

Her comments, in a debate aired on radio station WDEL, generated a buzz in the audience.

“You actually audibly heard the crowd gasp,” Widener University political scientist Wesley Leckrone said after the debate, adding that it raised questions about O’Donnell’s grasp of the Constitution.

Erin Daly, a Widener professor who specializes in constitutional law, said that while there are questions about what counts as government promotion of religion, there is little debate over whether the First Amendment prohibits the federal government from making laws establishing religion.

Okay, obviously this is hilarious and depressing, of course, because there are few things less obvious in the United States than the fact that the federal government is simply not, in theory, allowed to “establish a religion”. You know where I got that? Um, from this line in the Bill of Rights :

“Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.”

Now look, I’m sure every two-bit hippy blogger worth his numeric keypad is going to be writing about this, probably all upset (and in many ways, rightfully so). But I’m actually only bringing this up because — of course — this is an object of discussion that floats in pretty tight orbit around the true center of the universe… which would be me. I mean, duh, man.

Anyways, I literally spent an entire semester at my pretentious liberal arts university listening to a smart old man from Richmond, VA (and actually reading the books he assigned us) explain to me the nuances of the first sixteen words of this amendment. Sixteen words! Do you know how much work has gone into trying to figure out what those sixteen words mean, and how they apply to every stupid religious argument that comes up? Every nativity scene, every Flying Spaghetti Monster, every immunization waiver, every creationism debate? SOOOO MUCH. By academic standards, I barely dipped my toe in the pool, and I can tell you, there was definitely a point sometime in December of 2003 when I honestly thought I had looked at this thing from every conceivable angle. My thesis doesn’t even get into the Free Exercise Clause. I couldn’t even get past the first ten words!!!

Now, I am not an academic. I have a bachelor’s degree, and not a particularly prestigious one. But dammit, I paid a fair amount of attention simply due to the lack of an accessible punk rock scene or anything better to do, and I know me some 1st amendment. I don’t expect other people to, if they aren’t interested (although, in fairness, it’s kind of interesting). Heck, I don’t even think you need to really know it if you run for office in many cases; it’s just one part of a very high level document, and the Courts will just shoot down anything that doesn’t follow it. That’s why they’re there, you know.

But if you’re going to roll in here and lecture some poor, nerdy bureaucrat who follows this stuff about sticking to the Constitution, and then you basically crap the bed when prompted for even a general, contextual understanding of the basic principles — the ones that most directly appeal to the argument you’re making, at that — that went into its construction, well, good golly. You’ve crossed the line. You are now just farting in my general direction — you aren’t just failing to make an argument that resonates with me (that’s something most people are guilty of); you’re actively disrespecting years and years of work & thought and intellectually honest debate from smart, dedicated people who have wanted nothing else — not fame, not fortune, not power — than to help themselves and the general public understand how the people who originally put our country together would have wanted to deal with today’s issues.

Basically, there are a couple principles that I think define our country structurally, and I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this, and being pushed back, and rejiggering them, and so forth. But one of those principles is that the government isn’t here to establish any one religion, religion in general, or no religion at all. It’s an extraordinarily difficult task, but hey, we assigned it to ourselves, so we must have thought it was important. And like I said, I consider it one of the defining principles of our union, because no matter what, if anything, you believe, you’re affected by it (and in my opinion, affected very positively in the aggregate).

And while I stand by it, one thing this does tend to do is make people with strong cultural/religious views very, very greedy. Because we do our best to treat everyone in this country, from a religious standpoint, as their own little majority, eventually all of those groups start to think they actually are a majority. They don’t sit there and thank their lucky stars that they don’t live in a country where they have to hide in the attic, or pretend to convert to something — they think “what if the government really let us be us?”, where “really” means “let us use the power of the state to enhance our religious experience”? Now, I’m showing my bias here, but sometimes I think the only people who really get how important this system is are true agnostics, who have put themselves in a lot of different little religious shoes, and therefore realize how arrogant everyone really tends to get about this stuff. From my perspective, though — and no pun intended — hey, there but for the grace of God go I, you know? I mean, I know plenty of atheists who think we could finally root out thousand year old problems of war and peace if we could just stop believing in the old man in the clouds, and plenty of people from various Christian denominations who, for whatever reason, seem to think a government powered by actual, ecclesiastical Christianity would somehow get us “back” to a period of time that (A) we have no real evidence ever existed, and (B) even if it did, wasn’t nearly as nice as we’d like to think (subsistence farming and segregation, anyone? no?).

For whatever reason, Americans in general love the free market when it comes to products and consumables — and frankly, I’m a sucker for that, too. But where I seem to part ways with a lot of other people is in my love for a free market of ideas, particularly when they are vague, unprovable, and largely existential. You really have to grow up in a richly moral, but decidedly non-denominational household to understand how powerful true, personal convictions free of any dogma whatsoever can be. And you really have to work with someone guided largely by spiritual faith to understand the kinds of ridiculously amazing things those people can accomplish — and to see that these things are often mutually exclusive, simply by their nature. But either way, you absolutely have to let these people be these people. If you fail to do that, to actively protect the individual from the state the best you can, and from the tyranny of the majority (real or imagined), you don’t have America anymore. I don’t know what you have, but you don’t have this.

I really, truly believe, based on a mix of research and some degree of faith (ironically) that Jefferson & Adams got this. I don’t know how many people still do, but if we run out of them, or drive them all to Canada, we’re in serious, serious trouble.

UPDATE: Oh my God, I agree with Michael Gerson. Clearly this is an issue that transcends politics, and my increasing disdain for the Washington Post editorial page.

captive audience

Wow.

A local neighborhood is furious after firefighters watched as an Obion County, Tennessee, home burned to the ground.

The homeowner, Gene Cranick, said he offered to pay whatever it would take for firefighters to put out the flames, but was told it was too late.  They wouldn’t do anything to stop his house from burning.

Each year, Obion County residents must pay $75 if they want fire protection from the city of South Fulton.  But the Cranicks did not pay.

There are a couple possible responses to this. The first one is, “why wouldn’t you pay the $75?”, another is “should fire protection be something you pay for individually and can opt out of”, and a third is “how could you just let a fellow citizen’s house burn down when you’re right there with firefighting equipment?”

I don’t know anywhere near enough about the situation, or being a firefighter in general, to judge these particular dudes, but if I was on the scene and in charge, I’m not sure how I could stand there and let somebody’s house burn down while they begged me to help them. That’s pretty freaking brutal.

(via Daring Fireball.)

no one old gets the internet

Yeah, make it illegal to run a non-government-tappable internet service. Because I’m sure there won’t be any way for terrorists/hackers/criminals/nerds to get around that.

“We’re talking about lawfully authorized intercepts,” said Valerie E. Caproni, general counsel for the Federal Bureau of Investigation. “We’re not talking expanding authority. We’re talking about preserving our ability to execute our existing authority in order to protect the public safety and national security.”

Yeah, well guess what, Valerie? No offense, but we’ve been redefining what’s “lawfully authorized” pretty liberally over the last decade, to the point where using that term doesn’t really make me feel any better. I think what really pisses me off about this is that it’s not even a matter of making something “technically possible” — it’s about making it easy. And I, for one, like to know that if the government wants to gain access to ostensibly private information — even if “lawfully authorized” to do so — that it’s going to require some effort, and some thinking. I’m less enamored with the idea of some goon just flipping the “on” switch and getting to read my Skype conversations, boring as they may be.

And to touch on what is apparently a running theme of mine, doesn’t this sound like yet another “worst of both worlds” scenario for the future of the internet? We’ve “got to keep the government off the internet” as long as their purpose is to protect consumers from price gouging and content control by telecommunications companies, but of course, we also need to give them the keys to everything in case they ever feel like spying on us, because God forbid that should ever become difficult.

So again, and for the last time, it’s not whether the government has a role in something — it’s what they choose to do with that role.

up is down

Establishment Republican Mike Castle is trying to fight off a very weird primary challenge in Christine O’Donnell.

O’Donnell said the focus by Castle and the state GOP focus on some of her personal difficulties represent an effort to divert attention from his record. But when asked about that record, she suggested that Castle had voted for last year’s stimulus bill, which he hadn’t.

“We need to stop the wasteful spending,” O’Donnell said. “When we get behind bills like the multiple stimulus bills that my opponent has supported, when we get to that place, there’s no way that we can keep it going.”

O’Donnell has misspoken on other occasions. In one recorded speech, she said she beat Biden in two of Delaware’s three counties in 2008. Asked about that remark in a radio interview last week, she said that all she had said was that she had tied him. State records show that she lost all three counties.

O’Donnell also has said that she sold her house in a private sale. Court records show that her mortgage company had secured a default judgment against her.

One of the biggest problems with the left-right, liberal-conservative thing is that it has no measurement in it for determining whether someone is just a total drooling moron. I’m not kidding; we could spend all day trying to figure out the politics of the people who think George W. Bush planned 9/11, or that Barack Obama has some secret, diabolical agenda to keep people from building profitable businesses. But why? Those are transparently ridiculous arguments, and where they line up ideologically is irrelevant. For instance, I was totally, completely against bailing out GM — which may end up proving how little I understand about bailouts, but who knows — but I wasn’t against it for any other reason than that it was a dumb idea. I didn’t reflexively hate it because it involved “government control” of something; I hated it because it looked like the kind of quasi-government control that doesn’t really have a defined purpose other than to prop up someone’s bad idea.

But that’s a policy disagreement based on shared, mutually understood facts. I knew letting GM melt could be potentially devastating from a job-loss perspective, and that those effects could have larger, more devastating effects on other companies, and eventually on the one I work for. That was firmly in the “con” part of my pro-con table. The problem with modern politics — which has been getting worse for years, but has really taken off with the spread of these Sarah Palin clones gunning for insufficiently radical Republicans — isn’t the policy disagreements. It’s that we aren’t even operating with the same set of facts. This joker running against Castle is so full of crap, I’m not even sure how to proceed.

Statement : “I won two things.”

Correction : “I mean… I tied two things.”

Reality : I won nothing.

See the problem, there? It used to be, you’d have your campaign mudslingers put together a scary Willy Horton ad which implied something that maybe didn’t take context into consideration, and then if you got called on it, you’d have to spin a little bit and downplay the importance of the charge, etc., etc., and so forth, because you’re the elder George Bush, and you’re a man of some renown who can’t sleep at night when he blatantly makes things up, because it’s just embarrassing. In fact, people used to get mad at Clinton because he was so shockingly cavalier with the truth — he’d make up new definitions and force you to ask him to clarify, and play all these dumb games, and it ultimately earned him a reputation as, among other things, a dishonest politician (although the extent of how much anyone cares about his particular brand of dishonesty varies greatly).

But did anyone think Clinton was DUMB? I sure as hell didn’t, and my opinion of him vacillated wildly over the years. But this clown in Delaware (just like the clown in Nevada — and yes, I know I’m talking about two women, but there are plenty of shameless moron dudes in this position, and a long history of powerful, competent female legislators, so don’t run with that too far) is lying to us about basic, easily researched operational realities. She didn’t just say Castle voted for something that he didn’t vote for — she’s built an entire logic for her campaign around this part of his record, and gotten that part completely backwards. I mean, isn’t that like running against Al Gore because he refuses to acknowledge the existence of long term climate change? Regardless of the policy, doesn’t that just make you fundamentally unaware of what’s going on around you?

And shouldn’t that be, you know, not a redeeming quality in a candidate?

“Christine O’Donnell is just an ordinary citizen, and that’s what I like about her,” said Greg Gergen, a Wilmington Republican who said he will vote for O’Donnell. “To me, Castle is part of the problem. He’s a professional politician. He’s part of the status quo.”

Yep, just an ordinary citizen. She doesn’t know anything, she’s full of crap, and she really needs a job.

Just like the rest of us.

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